Research Lab
If it’s codable, a probability percentage is obtainable!
Busting myths, proving/disproving theories and statements, collecting raw data and combining small independent blocks into powerful expert advisor based on empirical data.
BULLISH ENGULFING
Statistical analysis on the Bullish Engulfing Japanese candlestick pattern. Using 5 years worth of data to obtain the results.
Pattern: BULLISH ENGULFING.
Pattern consists of: 2 candles.
Definition of the pattern:
Candle 2 – Bearish.
Candle 1 – Bullish.
Candle 1 – Closes above the high of candle 2.
Candle 1 – Low is lower than the low of candle 2.
The research shows:
- Multiple tests across different assets/markets.
- Various models with additional filters added to the entry criteria.
- Multiple time frames.
- Different trade management approaches – target wise.
Bullish Engulfing Example
(as coded and used in the models)
RULES OF MODEL 1
[bullish engulfing – model 1]
Price is below 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) when candle 1 (bullish engulfing candle closes).
Entry – Buy upon closing of candle 1 (bullish engulfing confirmed).
Stop Loss – Below the low of candle 1.
Single Target – fixed risk:reward ratio of 1:1/ 1:2/ 1:3
No trailing stop or any other trade management applied.
Deposit: 10k USD
Leverage: 1:100
Lot Size: The minimum for the asset.
Modeling Quality: 1 minute OHLC.
Market Groups: Forex, Stocks, Commodities, Indices, Cryptocurrencies.
Total Markets: 47.
RESULTS
[bullish engulfing – model 1]
CROSS ASSET PERFORMANCE
TIME FRAME – H1
TARGET: FIXED RISK:REWARD 1 : 1
PERIOD: 2017 – 2021 (October)
CROSS ASSET PERFORMANCE
TIME FRAME – H4
TARGET: FIXED RISK:REWARD 1 : 1
PERIOD: 2017 – 2021 (October)
CROSS ASSET PERFORMANCE
TIME FRAME – H8
TARGET: FIXED RISK:REWARD 1 : 1
PERIOD: 2017 – 2021 (October)
CROSS ASSET PERFORMANCE
TIME FRAME – H1
TARGET: FIXED RISK:REWARD 1 : 2
PERIOD: 2017 – 2021 (October)
CROSS ASSET PERFORMANCE
TIME FRAME – H4
TARGET: FIXED RISK:REWARD 1 : 2
PERIOD: 2017 – 2021 (October)
CROSS ASSET PERFORMANCE
TIME FRAME – H8
TARGET: FIXED RISK:REWARD 1 : 2
PERIOD: 2017 – 2021 (October)
CROSS ASSET PERFORMANCE
TIME FRAME – H1
TARGET: FIXED RISK:REWARD 1 : 3
PERIOD: 2017 – 2021 (October)
CROSS ASSET PERFORMANCE
TIME FRAME – H4
TARGET: FIXED RISK:REWARD 1 : 3
PERIOD: 2017 – 2021 (October)
CROSS ASSET PERFORMANCE
TIME FRAME – H8
TARGET: FIXED RISK:REWARD 1 : 3
PERIOD: 2017 – 2021 (October)
BEARISH ENGULFING
Statistical analysis on the Bearish Engulfing Japanese candlestick pattern. Using 5 years worth of data to obtain the results.
Pattern: BEARISH ENGULFING.
Pattern consists of: 2 candles.
Definition of the pattern:
Candle 2 – Bearish.
Candle 1 – Bullish.
Candle 1 – Closes above the high of candle 2.
Candle 1 – Low is lower than the low of candle 2.
The research shows:
- Multiple tests across different assets/markets.
- Various models with additional filters added to the entry criteria.
- Multiple time frames.
- Different trade management approaches – target wise.
Bearish Engulfing Example
(as coded and used in the models)
RULES OF MODEL 1
[bearish engulfing – model 1]
Filter: Price is above 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) when candle 1 (bearish engulfing candle closes).
Entry – Sell upon closing of candle 1 (bearish engulfing confirmed).
Stop Loss – Above the high of candle 1.
Single Target – fixed risk:reward ratio of 1:1/ 1:2/ 1:3
No trailing stop or any other trade management applied.
Deposit: 10k USD
Leverage: 1:100
Lot Size: The minimum for the asset.
Modeling Quality: 1 minute OHLC.
Market Groups: Forex, Stocks, Commodities, Indices, Cryptocurrencies.
Total Markets: 47.
RESULTS
[bearish engulfing – model 1]
CROSS ASSET PERFORMANCE
TIME FRAME – H1
TARGET: FIXED RISK:REWARD 1 : 1
PERIOD: 2017 – 2021 (October)
CROSS ASSET PERFORMANCE
TIME FRAME – H4
TARGET: FIXED RISK:REWARD 1 : 1
PERIOD: 2017 – 2021 (October)
CROSS ASSET PERFORMANCE
TIME FRAME – H8
TARGET: FIXED RISK:REWARD 1 : 1
PERIOD: 2017 – 2021 (October)
CROSS ASSET PERFORMANCE
TIME FRAME – H1
TARGET: FIXED RISK:REWARD 1 : 2
PERIOD: 2017 – 2021 (October)
CROSS ASSET PERFORMANCE
TIME FRAME – H4
TARGET: FIXED RISK:REWARD 1 : 2
PERIOD: 2017 – 2021 (October)
CROSS ASSET PERFORMANCE
TIME FRAME – H8
TARGET: FIXED RISK:REWARD 1 : 2
PERIOD: 2017 – 2021 (October)
CROSS ASSET PERFORMANCE
TIME FRAME – H1
TARGET: FIXED RISK:REWARD 1 : 3
PERIOD: 2017 – 2021 (October)
CROSS ASSET PERFORMANCE
TIME FRAME – H4
TARGET: FIXED RISK:REWARD 1 : 3
PERIOD: 2017 – 2021 (October)
CROSS ASSET PERFORMANCE
TIME FRAME – H8
TARGET: FIXED RISK:REWARD 1 : 3
PERIOD: 2017 – 2021 (October)
